AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Fractionally Mixed on Tuesday

Corn futures are steady to fractionally mixed so far on Tuesday. The cmdtyView National Corn Price Index is at $3.69 1/4, up 44 cents from the same day last year. National basis was pegged at -19 cents, 25 1/4 cents stronger than the same harvest period in 2018. The USDA Crop Progress report on Monday showed maturity 11% behind average pace at 86%. The report also revealed corn harvest was 30% complete, lagging the 47% average for this date. Dry weather over the next week should allow for progress to continue. Conditions were rated 56% gd/ex, up 1%, with the Brugler500 index up 2 at 349. On the week, ND lost another 6 points , with MI down 3. Ratings in IL were up 5, with IN jumping 4 points and NE 6 points higher. Ukraine’s ag ministry estimates the country’s 2019 corn crop will total 32.8 MMT, down 3 MMT from 2018.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.87 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.99 1/2, unch,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.06 1/4, down 1/2 cent

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.12 1/4, down 3/4 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Recover Monday’s Losses

Soybeans futures are 1 to 1 1/2 higher in the nearby contracts for Tuesday’s midday. The market was initially up a dime on rumors that China had issued tariff waivers for another 10 MMT of soybeans. This would allow private firms to buy US beans IF the FOB prices are low enough in the US to be competitive with South America. Soybean meal is lower by 50 cents/ton, and soy oil is 35 points higher at midday. The National Soybean Price Index is at $8.67 1/2, a $1.07 3/4 jump over last year. Basis, according to cmdtyView was at -$0.67 1/2, 31 cents stronger than the same data in 2018. The USDA crop progress report showed soybean harvest progress at 46% after a week of better weather. The 5 year average pace is 64% done by now. The last soybean crop condition ratings of the season were 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345, both unch from last week. ND most notably deteriorated another 12 points.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.34 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.48 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.60 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.68 1/2, up 1 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $307.20, down $0.50,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.83, up $0.35

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Winter Wheat Carries Monday’s Losses into Tuesday

Winter wheat futures gave back overnight gains, with Chicago Dec now down by 3 1/4 and Kansas City Dec 3 1/2 cents lower. Spring wheat futures are fractionally rallying as MPLS Dec is up by 1/2 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. NASS reported on Monday afternoon that winter wheat was 77% planted, and 53% emerged for the 18 states USDA tracks. Winter wheat conditions will be released next week, though there is very little correlation with output this early. Spring Wheat harvest was pegged at 96% complete, with ND @ 95% and MT 92% harvested. Ukraine’s wheat harvest is expected to total 28.1 MMT for 2019, according to the country’s ag ministry, a 3.5 MMT increase over last year. The deadline for an Ethiopian tender of 400,000 MT of wheat is pushed back from Wednesday to Nov 5.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.20 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.22, down 3 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.38 1/4, up 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Contracts Mixed at Tuesday’s Midday

Live cattle futures are mixed so far on Tuesday, while feeder cattle futures are reversing Monday’s losses. Analysts on average expect the USDA’s cattle on feed report to show that 2.082 million head were placed on feedlots for September. If realized, that would be 1.5% more than Sept. 2018. Expectations for September marketings are centered around 1.738 million head, which would be a 1.1% increase yr/yr. The 10/18 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 37 cent increase, and is up to $145.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices are trending upward for Tuesday. Choice boxes are $0.75 higher to $220.88, while Select boxes are up $3.34 to $197.78. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 118,000 head, up 1,000 head from last week and even with the same Monday last year. Asks are $110 in the South so far this week, with no bids to report. This week’s FCE online auction has a total of just 231 head listed for Wednesday’s auction.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $110.450, down $0.500,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.275, up $0.400,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $119.425, up $0.200,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.000, up $0.575

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.900, up $1.050

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.500, up $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Lower at Midday

Hog futures were lower by as much as $1.90 in the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was 9 cents lower on Oct 18 to $65.53. Tuesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA is down by $1.80 to $76.73 so far. Primal cuts are mixed with the biggest change coming from the belly, which dropped $10.31 at midday. The national average base hog for 10/22, so far, is down by $0.20 to $56.91. USDA estimated hog slaughter for Monday was 488,000 head, which is 13,000 head up from last year. Chinese researchers announced that they had modeled the 5-layered ASF virus and some of its component parts. Further work will be needed to target potential vaccines to the structure of the virus.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $65.925, down $1.900,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $76.425, down $1.750

APR 20 Hogs are at $83.275, down $1.125

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Futures Noticing Higher Tuesday

Cotton futures are showing 17 to 25 point gains in the front months. Cotton harvest was up 8% over last week to 40% complete per the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. That is 5% above average, with Texas 3 percentage points ahead of their average pace. Conditions in the report were 41% good/ex, up 3%, with the Brugler500 unch at 321. KS lost 25 points on the week, which was likely due to freeze damage that appeared late in the week prior. The Cotlook A Index was 25 points higher on Oct 21, to 75.70 cents/lb. The AWP is 55.26, effective through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.81, up 25 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.53, up 19 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.19, up 17 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.69, up 17 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353